Question

In January 2014, the “polar vortex” swept across the eastern US leading some media outlets to claim this was the “coldest weather in decades” in Baltimore between Jan 6 & Jan 8. It turns out that only 5 years prior, in 2009, Jan 15 – Jan 17 were 5 degrees colder in Baltimore than the coldest temperatures in 2014. Why did these media outlets say it was the “coldest weather in decades”? Many statisticians say that it is a mistake to look at weather temperature records the way that media outlets looked at the Baltimore "record"; why do you think they say this is a "mistake"?

Answer 1

1. The media outlets often know to misrepresent the fact, which comes out because of two major reasons, the insufficient knowledge of the topic, or trying to get more viewers/readers by pumping up the story. In this case, the media outlets took the lowest temperature, while neglecting the average for the period, thus they used it to say that it was the coldest period in the last decades. Also, by using the title that it was the coldest weather in decades, the people are automatically triggered to read it, thus the media will get more turnout.

2. The statisticians on the other hand, disagreed with the claims of the media outlets. The reason for this was that the media outlets were taking in consideration only a single lowest minimum. That is not the manner in which the lowest temperature in a given period is calculated, but it is the average for of the temperatures for the given period that give a proper picture about the weather conditions.