Question

You are about to visit Jamestown in North Dakota, to see the world's largest buffalo monument. You know that it snows $25\%$ of the time in North Dakota, and you are thinking about bringing your parka. It turns out that you have three friends who live in North Dakota, but they are not very trustworthy: Each tells the truth $\frac{2}{3}$ of the time, and lies for the remaining $\frac{1}{3}.$ You call your three friends, and each friend tells you that it is indeed snowing in North Dakota. Given this information, what is the probability that it is actually snowing in North Dakota

Answer 1

Answer:

The probability that it is actually snowing in North Dakota is 17%.

Step-by-step explanation:

Note: The data in the question is not properly stated. The complete question is therefore represented to correct this as follows:

You are about to visit Jamestown in North Dakota, to see the world's largest buffalo monument. You know that it snows 25% of the time in North Dakota, and you are thinking about bringing your parka. It turns out that you have three friends who live in North Dakota, but they are not very trustworthy: Each tells the truth 2/3 of the time, and lies for the remaining 1/3. You call your three friends, and each friend tells you that it is indeed snowing in North Dakota. Given this information, what is the probability that it is actually snowing in North Dakota?

The explanation to the answer is now given as follows:

The probability that it is actually snowing in North Dakota can be calculated using the following formula:

Pa = Pr * Pt ........................... (1)

Where;

Pa = the probability that it is actually snowing in North Dakota = ?

Pr = the prior probability that it snows in North Dokota = 25%, or 0.25

Pt = Probability of saying the truth that it snows = 2/3 = 0.67

Substituting the value into equation (1), we have:

Pa = 0.25 * 0.67

Pa = 0.17, or 17%

Therefore, the probability that it is actually snowing in North Dakota is 17%.