Question

Tetlock argues that experts with good predictive powers must have a different style of thinking. They should Select one or more: a. easily accept consensus opinions b. be willing to challenge conventional wisdom c. explore diverse information and analytical models d. should be overly attached to single explanations for events e. be comfortable with complexity and uncertainty

Answer 1

Answer: According to Tetlock argument, Expert with good predictive power should be willing to;

• EXPLORE DIVERSE INFORMATION AND ANALYTICAL MODEL

• CHALLENGE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM

• BE COMFORTABLE WITH COMPLEXITY AND UNCERTAINTY.

Therefore option b,c,e is the right answer.

Explanation: The predictive power of a scientist is the power a scientist has to generate a testable prediction, thereby making its theory to be a testable prediction.

For an expert to have good predictive power it must have the ability to explore diverse information and analytical model, because when you explore different information and analyse it in the best form, you will be able to postulate more information and discoveries, which can help you to predict a testable theory. By exploring you are trying to challenge conventional wisdom, of why should this be this?, You may get confused and uncertain at a point. But if he you have a good predictive power, you can be able to absorb it all to achieve your discovery and produce a scientific theory with a predictive power.