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Illusion [34]
1 year ago
6

A manufacturer of paper coffee cups would like to estimate the proportion of cups that are defective (tears, broken seems, etc.)

from a large batch of cups. They take a random sample of 200 cups from the batch of a few thousand cups and found 18 to be defective. The goal is to perform a hypothesis test to determine if the proportion of defective cups made by this machine is more than 8%.
Required:
a. Calculate a 95% confidence interval for the true proportion of defective cups made by this machine.
b. What is the sample proportion?
c. What is the critical value for this problem?
d. What is the standard error for this problem?
Mathematics
1 answer:
Maksim231197 [3]1 year ago
7 0

Answer:

a

  The 95% confidence interval is  0.0503  <   p < 0.1297

b

The sample proportion is  \r p =  0.09

c

The critical value is  Z_{\frac{\alpha }{2} } =  1.96

d

 The standard error is  SE   =0.020

Step-by-step explanation:

From the question we are told that

   The  sample size is  n =  200

     The number of defective is  k =  18

The null hypothesis is  H_o  :  p  =  0.08

The  alternative hypothesis is  H_a  :  p > 0.08

Generally the sample proportion is mathematically evaluated as

            \r p =  \frac{18}{200}

            \r p =  0.09

Given that the confidence level is  95% then the level  of significance is mathematically evaluated as

        \alpha  =  100 -  95

        \alpha  =  5\%

        \alpha  =  0.05

Next we obtain the critical value of  \frac{ \alpha }{2} from the normal distribution table, the value is  

        Z_{\frac{\alpha }{2} } =  1.96

Generally the standard of error is mathematically represented as

          SE   =  \sqrt{\frac{\r p (1 -  \r p)}{n} }

substituting values

         SE   =  \sqrt{\frac{0.09  (1 -  0.09)}{200} }

        SE   =0.020

The  margin of error is  

       E =  Z_{\frac{ \alpha }{2} }  * SE

=>    E =  1.96  *  0.020

=>   E =  0.0397

The  95% confidence interval is mathematically represented as

     \r p  -  E  <  \mu <  p <  \r p  + E

=>   0.09 - 0.0397  <  \mu <  p < 0.09 + 0.0397

=>  0.0503  <   p < 0.1297

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Customers are used to evaluate a preliminary product design. In the past, 95% of highly successful products received good review
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Answer:

a. 61.5%; b. About 61.8%; c. About 36.4%

Step-by-step explanation:

This is a kind of question that we can solve using the Bayes' Theorem. We have here all the different conditional probabilities we need to solve this problem.

According to that theorem, the probability of a selected product attains a good review is:

\\ P(G) = P(G|H)*P(H) + P(G|M)*P(M) + P(G|P)*P(P) (1)

In words, the probability that a selected product attains a <em>good review</em> is an <em>event </em>that depends upon the sum of the conditional probabilities that the product comes from <em>high successful product</em> P(G|H) by the probability that this product is a <em>highly successful product</em> P(H), plus the same about the rest of the probabilities, that is, P(G|M)*P(M) or the probability that the product has a good review coming from a <em>moderately successful</em> product by the probability of being moderately successful, and a good review coming from a poor successful product by the probability of being poor successful or P(G|P)*P(P).

<h3>The probability that a randomly selected product attains a good review</h3>

In this way, the probability that a randomly selected product attains a good review is the result of the formula (1). Where (from the question):

P(G|H) = 95% or 0.95 (probability of receiving a good review being a highly successful product)

P(G|M) = 60% or 0.60 (probability of receiving a good review being a moderately successful product)

P(G|P) = 10% or 0.10 (probability of receiving a good review being a poorly successful product)

P(H) = 40% or 0.40 (probability of  being a highly successful product).

P(M) = 35% or 0.35 (probability of  being a moderately successful product).

P(P) = 25% or 0.25 (probability of  being a poor successful product).

Then,

\\ P(G) = P(G|H)*P(H) + P(G|M)*P(M) + P(G|P)*P(P)

\\ P(G) = 0.95*0.40 + 0.60*0.35 + 0.10*0.25

\\ P(G) = 0.615\;or\; 61.5\%

That is, <em>the probability that a randomly selected product attains a good review</em> is 61.5%.

<h3>The probability that a new product attains a good review is a highly successful product</h3>

We are looking here for P(H|G). We can express this probability mathematically as follows (another conditional probability):

\\ P(H|G) = \frac{P(G|H)*P(H)}{P(G)}

We can notice that the probability represents a fraction from the probability P(G) already calculated. Then,

\\ P(H|G) = \frac{0.95*0.40}{0.615}

\\ P(H|G) =\frac{0.38}{0.615}

\\ P(H|G) =0.618

Then, the probability of a product that attains a good review is indeed a highly successful product is about 0.618 or 61.8%.

<h3>The probability that a product that <em>does not attain </em>a good review is a moderately successful product</h3>

The probability that a product does not attain a good review is given by a similar formula than (1). However, this probability is the complement of P(G). Mathematically:

\\ P(NG) = P(NG|H)*P(H) + P(NG|M)*P(M) + P(NG|P)*P(P)

P(NG|H) = 1 - P(G|H) = 1 - 0.95 = 0.05

P(NG|M) = 1 - P(G|M) = 1 - 0.60 = 0.40

P(NG|P) = 1 - P(G|M) = 1 - 0.10 = 0.90

So

\\ P(NG) = 0.05*0.40 + 0.40*0.35 + 0.90*0.25

\\ P(NG) = 0.385\;or\; 38.5\%

Which is equal to

P(NG) = 1 - P(G) = 1 - 0.615 = 0.385

Well, having all this information at hand:

\\ P(M|NG) = \frac{P(NG|M)*P(M)}{P(NG)}

\\ P(M|NG) = \frac{0.40*0.35}{0.385}

\\ P(M|NG) = \frac{0.14}{0.385}

\\ P(M|NG) = 0.363636... \approx 0.364

Then, the <em>probability that a new product does not attain a good review and it is a moderately successful product is about </em>0.364 or 36.4%.

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